EGTB Signal Update — Mar 18 2026
- Equality Regime
- Mar 18
- 2 min read
Equity Regime US Stock Market Top and Bottom Timing Signals
🟦 Equity Regime — US Equity Top & Bottom Timing
🟢 Bottom: ACTIVE (Mar 9)
🔴 Top: NONE
🟡 Volatility exhaustion: PERSISTING
⚪ Credit stabilization: HOLDING
Signal Context
No new signal.
Recent price action remains within the expected timing window defined by the Mar 9 signal.
Across indices, the bottoming process is not synchronous:
– QQQ has already approached its 200MA
– SPX / DIA / IWM are completing their final leg toward it
Model Notes：
EGTB defines a timing window, not a single-point reversal.
Volatility has shown signs of exhaustion, while risk and credit structures have not confirmed further downside acceleration.
Structure stabilizing. Follow-through pending.
EGTB = daily timing model Use with Thursday’s EGTI trend signal.
🟦 Founder's Note — Mar 18 2026
The EGTB Bottom Signal (Mar 9) remains active, with price action continuing to unfold within the model’s defined timing window.
Across major indices ($QQQ $SPY $DIA $IWM), markets are still compressing toward rising 200-day moving averages, rather than resolving through a single directional move.
This confirms the original interpretation: bottom formation is a process of time and volatility, not a price event.
Fig1：Index Structural Convergence Toward 200MA Support
EG Risk Structure
The EG Risk Structure shows a clear transition:
– The prior volatility expansion phase has peaked– Current behavior has shifted into range-bound compression– No new expansion leg is forming
This indicates a shift in market dynamics:
→ risk stress is no longer accelerating→ downside is being processed through time, not momentum
Fig 2：EG Risk Structure Transition: Expansion → Compression
Cross-Index Structure
The adjustment remains asynchronous across indices:
– $QQQ has already reached its 200MA zone– $SPY / $DIA / $IWM are still completing their final leg
This staggered behavior is consistent with intermediate bottom formation, not structural weakness.
Conclusion
Geopolitical developments have introduced short-term distortion, but:
no structural break has occurred.
no new signal has been triggered.
The market remains inside the bottoming window defined on Mar 9.
Volatility is no longer expanding. It is being absorbed.
Equity Regime Intelligence Suite Update Calendar
#EGTI — Weekly Trend Signal: Every Weekend
#EGTB — Timing Signal Update: Every Wednesday night.
EG Market Monthly Report：First weekend of each month
#EGLRM-14 (Liquidity Regime Matrix)：Every Thursday night
About Equity Regime
Equity Regime is an independent research platform dedicated to mapping structural shifts across markets, technology, and capital cycles.
Our focus is not on predicting daily price movements, but on identifying regime transitions — periods when consensus narratives lag underlying reality and long-term repricing quietly begins.
In an environment dominated by noise, our objective is simple:
Detect the shift before it becomes obvious.